Climate change impact assessment
We prepare climate change impact assessment studies on various areas to assist in strategic decision making.
About the project
Global warming is having a considerable impact on forest ecosystems, which makes it necessary to develop prevention and management plans to increase the resilience of forests and ensure their continuity. In this scenario, it is essential to consider the variation of environmental factors such as the increase in average temperature, the longer duration and intensity of heat waves, the increased risk of fires, changes in precipitation or water stress, all of which are involved in the increasing forest mortality and the latitudinal displacement of multiple species. In addition, biotic factors – such as pathogens, pests or invasive species – whose response to environmental variability can further aggravate this situation. Given that forests provide important environmental and socioeconomic benefits, such as nature tourism, livestock or forestry, their conservation is also a responsibility acquired by Spain through international commitments such as the Millennium Development Goals or the Oslo Ministerial Decision (European Forests 2020). One of the main current risks to forest biodiversity is the expansion of invasive alien species, listed in the Spanish Catalogue of Invasive Alien Species (Law 42/2007), which represent a serious threat to native species and ecosystems. In this context, the BIOFOREST-CC project set out to analyze these threats by simulating the future climate at a local scale and modeling the evolution of some of the most dangerous invasive plant species detected in the study area. To this end, species distribution models were used to evaluate habitat suitability under different climate scenarios based on the association between known records of presence and environmental variables. The project incorporates innovative approaches to anticipate the future evolution of invasive species and predict their potential impacts on forest ecosystems and local species. BIOFOREST-CC is framed within the 2019 grants awarded by the Ministry for Ecological Transition to third sector entities for activities of general interest in environmental research.
Activities performed
The activities carried out included: (1) the selection of priority invasive species based on bibliographic data and the criteria of CIFOR-INIA, the entity in charge of monitoring in Spain; (2) the simulation of future climate in the study areas, including the collection of meteorological data, the application of quality filters (including one of its own inhomogeneities, according to Monjo et al. 2013) and the regionalization of IPCC5 climate scenarios using the FICLIMA methodology; (3) the adaptation and adjustment of species distribution models applied to the selected species and the projected climate scenarios; and (4) the analysis of the expected changes in the future evolution of these species, as well as their possible effect on native biodiversity. The results obtained were shared with CIFOR-INIA for their integration in the monitoring of invasive species at the national level.
Funded by
Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge through grants to third-sector entities or non-governmental organizations that carry out activities of general interest considered to be of social interest in the field of scientific and technical research and environmental protection under state jurisdiction. This research has been funded by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge but does not express its opinion.
