Climate change impact assessment
We prepare climate change impact assessment studies on various areas to assist in strategic decision making.
About the project
Potential distribution of forest species under future climate scenarios or FORESCLIM, is a study funded by the call for research projects for non-profit foundations granted by the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge during the year 2021.
Objectives
FORESCLIM aims to:
- In this project, Species Distribution Models (SDM) have been implemented for the main forest species of the Alberche river basin. With the aim of differentiating different subpopulations within a taxon, modeling has been carried out for the regions of origin of the 13 forest species under study. Incorporating bioclimatic indices related to extreme environmental conditions of temperature and precipitation as predictor variables, the responses of each subpopulation to these factors were obtained, as well as suitability maps for each population under past and future climatic scenarios of the study area. Thus, a cartography has been obtained that serves as an auxiliary tool for the study of the vulnerability of the forest populations found in the Alberche river basin. In turn, it can also provide information on subpopulations in other regions that may be more adapted than the current ones to future conditions, serving as an auxiliary tool for the creation of forest stands resilient to climate change.
Results
Among its main results, the following stand out:
- Based on the products obtained in this project, with different species distribution maps and response curves according to different populations within a species, as proposed by Benito Garzón et al. (2011) and Serra-Varela et al. (2017), it can be concluded that carrying out species distribution models trained with different populations within a species in the context of climate change was a relevant need.
- Another important conclusion of this study has been to confirm the need to use climate scenarios based on the CMIP6 models used in the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, since the new features and improvements that they incorporate over those of CMIP5 are very important, which will very probably mean that in a short time all the studies carried out with the latter will be considered scientifically obsolete.
- In addition, the results of this study also serve as an auxiliary tool to facilitate decision making for assisted migrations to generate forest stands in suitable areas, such as new ecological corridors, which are expected to be more resilient to future climatic conditions in the area.
- Likewise, the results of this project are useful for decision making in the selection of species to be used in reforestation and ecosystem restoration projects.
- A key result of the project is the need to continue carrying out this type of study, extending it to other areas and other species, since the adaptation of forests to climate change is a priority, both in terms of their own value and their effect on climate change mitigation as carbon sinks (“adaptation for mitigation”).
Funded by
Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge through grants to third-sector entities or non-governmental organizations that carry out activities of general interest considered to be of social interest in the field of scientific and technical research and environmental protection under state jurisdiction. This research has been funded by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge but does not express its opinion.
