Seasonal and decadal forecasting
We develop seasonal forecasting models for years, months or weeks ahead, designed ad-hoc for each client.
About the project
The EESAGUA project has been able to evaluate the predictive capacity of droughts on a seasonal scale, i.e., for the coming months. This has been possible based on different indices through the study of the predictability of the evolution of variables such as temperature and precipitation.
Methodology
The methodology followed by the project consisted of a seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation using the Ensembles method for the study area. Both dynamic and statistical models based on Copernicus have been used for this prediction. Additionally, teleconnection indices are taken into account, such as the Upper Level Mediterranean Oscillation Index (ULMOi), whose correlation with the climate of the study areas has been demonstrated.
Based on the seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts, seasonal predictions of the SPI and SPEI indices were developed. Subsequently, a verification of the seasonal prediction was carried out using these indices to determine the reliability with which possible periods of drought can be estimated in advance.
With this prediction it has been possible to make progress in the estimation of the water balance and the corresponding water availability in different river basins, improving the reliability of seasonal drought predictions.
Funded by
Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge through grants to third-sector entities or non-governmental organizations that carry out activities of general interest considered to be of social interest in the field of scientific and technical research and environmental protection under state jurisdiction. This research has been funded by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge but does not express its opinion.
