Local climate change projections
We design tools to simulate expected changes in future climate and assess how they may affect us through risk and vulnerability analysis.
Generation of Local Climate Change Projections in Djibouti
Objectives
The project seeks to develop a current and future climate diagnosis for Djibouti using observed data, reanalysis and CMIP6 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, wind and sea level. It aims to identify critical thresholds that may affect electricity infrastructure, including heat waves, extreme rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding. It will map the spatial exposure of Djibouti’s electricity system and locate the most vulnerable areas and infrastructure, while generating a technical basis for a resilience plan covering investments, organisational improvements, operation, maintenance and institutional strengthening.
Results
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- The report concludes that the main robust change is the increase in temperature: under moderate scenarios the mean maximum temperature would rise to 37-38 °C, and under the most pessimistic scenarios to 39-41 °C, with extremes potentially approaching 60 °C by the end of the century.
- Precipitation does not show major changes until mid-century, but under pessimistic scenarios it may increase sharply toward the end of the century, with increases even above 100% in some areas and daily episodes of more than 50 mm.
- Wind does not show significant changes according to the models, so it does not appear as the most critical climate factor compared with heat, extreme rainfall and coastal flooding.
- Sea level could rise by around 0.5 m by the end of the century, clearly increasing the risk of coastal flooding; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the exposed area would grow by around 67%.
- The most exposed areas are mainly Djibouti-ville and Tadjourah, due to the combination of extreme heat, intense rainfall and coastal flooding, with direct implications for power plants, lines and interconnections.
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