Seasonal and decadal forecasting
We develop seasonal forecasting models for years, months or weeks ahead, designed ad-hoc for each client.
About the project
Influence of climatic anomalies on pollutant concentration or IAC3 is a study funded by the call for research projects for non-profit foundations granted by the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge during the year 2021.
Objectives
IAC3 aims to:
- Analysis of the influence of seasonal climatic anomalies on the concentration of pollutants, according to the atmospheric situations that favor calms, considering also the peculiarities of the orographic characteristics with local circulation. The historical episodes with the highest concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and PM2.5 particles have been analyzed in order to review the climatic anomaly situations that favor them.
Results
Among its main results, the following stand out:
- Through the observed data of atmospheric pollutants NO2 and PM2.5 and data from meteorological stations, it has been determined that synoptic situations in which there is the presence of a robust anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula are those that facilitate the greatest occurrence of thermal inversion phenomena, which are those that imply a higher concentration of these pollutants and therefore exceed the different existing thresholds. These situations are the ones that facilitate the greatest occurrence of thermal inversion phenomena, which are the ones that imply a higher concentration of these pollutants and therefore the overcoming of the different existing thresholds.
- According to the evolution of pollutant concentrations, the annual trend observed in all river basins is to decrease. Despite this, and given that the thresholds proposed by the WHO are frequently violated, it would be necessary to predict in advance the types of situations that give rise to high concentrations in order to reduce emissions accordingly.
- With the intention of providing a scientific basis for climate prediction, for its application at the local level in the different hydrographic basins, a methodological transfer of knowledge has been included in the report. This, together with the basic study on the evolution and exceedance of pollutant thresholds, is the starting point for a more complete study of air pollution prediction using local climate change scenarios updated with the latest generation CMIP6 models.
Funded by
Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge through grants to third-sector entities or non-governmental organizations that carry out activities of general interest considered to be of social interest in the field of scientific and technical research and environmental protection under state jurisdiction. This research has been funded by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge but does not express its opinion.
