Proyecciones locales de cambio climático
Diseñamos herramientas para simular los cambios esperados en el clima futuro y evaluar cómo nos pueden afectar a través del análisis de riesgo y vulnerabilidad.
Generación de proyecciones locales en Diourbel (Senegal)
Objetivos
Preparation of a local climate diagnosis for Diourbel, using observed data and IPCC/CMIP6 projections. Translating that diagnosis into territorial and urban planning, especially in water, drainage, soils, vegetation, and climate risk reduction.
The project also aims to design an agro-sylvo-pastoral model adapted to the Sahel, based on sustainable water management, reforestation, soil regeneration, and improvement of productive resilience.
Lastly, it seeks to connect researchers, technicians, and farmers through a knowledge network, systematic documentation of experiences, and the training of young digital farmers
Resultados
- The models project strong warming for the 21st century: in favorable scenarios, around +2 °C, and in the worst ones, more than +4 to +5 °C, with greater thermal discomfort and pressure on agriculture and water.
- A critical combination is expected of less probable total rainfall in many scenarios and more intense precipitation episodes, which at the same time increases the risk of drought and sudden flooding.
- From an applied point of view, concrete adaptation measures are proposed: IDF curves for drainage, recovery of the Sine corridor, green belts, reforestation, use of biochar, groundwater control, and monitoring systems useful for climate finance and carbon credits
