Local climate change projections
We design tools to simulate expected changes in future climate and assess how they may affect us through risk and vulnerability analysis.
Generation of Local Climate Projections in Diourbel (Senegal)
Objectives
Preparation of a local climate diagnosis for Diourbel, using observed data and IPCC/CMIP6 projections. Translating that diagnosis into territorial and urban planning, especially in water, drainage, soils, vegetation, and climate risk reduction. The project also aims to design an agro-sylvo-pastoral model adapted to the Sahel, based on sustainable water management, reforestation, soil regeneration, and improvement of productive resilience. Lastly, it seeks to connect researchers, technicians, and farmers through a knowledge network, systematic documentation of experiences, and the training of young digital farmers.
Results
- The models project strong warming for the 21st century: in favorable scenarios, around +2 °C, and in the worst ones, more than +4 to +5 °C, with greater thermal discomfort and pressure on agriculture and water.
- A critical combination is expected of less probable total rainfall in many scenarios and more intense precipitation episodes, which at the same time increases the risk of drought and sudden flooding.
- From an applied point of view, concrete adaptation measures are proposed: IDF curves for drainage, recovery of the Sine corridor, green belts, reforestation, use of biochar, groundwater control, and monitoring systems useful for climate finance and carbon credits
